WIMBLEDON MEN’S SINGLE PREVIEW

The respectable decision from the Wimbledon Committee not to over-rule their seeding formula (and therefore confirming David Ferrer as number 4 and Rafael Nadal as 5) has produced an unbalanced draw for the 2013 edition of the Men’s Single. Nadal could, in fact, meet Roger Federer as early as in the quarter-finals and the winner would face Andy Murray in the semi-finals, providing the Brit will survive his quarter-final match against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The number 1 seed, Novak Djokovic, can consider his-self lucky since he wouldn’t meet any of the other “fab four” until the final. On the other hand, the Serb could, on paper, face a tough last 16 encounter against Tommy Haas (who beat him at the Championships in 2009) and an even trickier quarter-final against Tomas Berdych or Richard Gasquet. Ferrer, is in the weakest quarter, but he will have to deal with possible threats coming from Martin Del Potro, Grigor Dimitrov, Kei Nishikori or Milos Raonic. In light of the draw’s outcome, current form and career results on grass, this is the list of my top-ten favorites for the tournament.

10 - Richard Gasquet

Wimbledon Best Result: Semi Finalist (2007)

Grass Court Titles: 2

2013 on Grass: SF Halle

Current Single Ranking: 9

Wimbledon Seed: 9th 

Gasquet’s offensive game is perfectly suited for playing on grass as he proved winning 2 of his 9 career titles (both in Nottingham, in 2005 and 2006) on the surface. Even his main weakness, endurance (Richard has a poor 5-12 5th set career record), is not exposed on grass since matches rarely reach the 4 hours, unless you’re playing John Isner! Since he’s coached by Sebastien Grosejan and Riccardo Piatti, the Frenchman has experienced an unprecedented level of consistency in his performances and he’s now regularly ranked in the top 10. At the Championships he achieved his best result in a Grand Slam, reaching the semi-finals in 2007 where he beat Andy Roddick in an epic 5 sets match. He has already won 2 tournaments this year (Doha and Montpellier) and despite his surprising loss to Mikhail Youzhny in Halle’s semifinals he has to be considered one of the most dangerous outsiders in the draw. 

9 - Tommy Haas

Wimbledon Best Result: Semi Finalist (2009)

Grass Court Titles: 2

2013 on Grass: SF Halle

Current Single Ranking:11

Wimbledon Seed: 13th 

After last year’s surprising come back, Tommy Haas is at 35 playing close to the level that allowed him to climb up to number 2 in the world 13 years ago. He beat Djokovic in Indian Wells and won a tournament in Munich. His good form continued at the French Open (where Djokovic took his revenge in the 4th round) and at the Gerry Weber Open in Halle where he lost in the semis to Roger Federer, who he previously upset in the 2012 final, doubling the title he also won in 2009. The German’s record at the Championships is relatively poor compared to his potential on the surface, having gone through the 3rd round only twice in his entire career. He reached the 4th round in 2007 when an injury forced him to withdraw, while in 2009 he lost in the semi-finals to Federer. The way he’s playing at the moment can give me good hopes of reaching at least the second week of the tournament and then play his cards against Novak Djokovic.

8 - David Ferrer

Wimbledon Best Result: Quarter Finalist (2012)

Grass Court Titles: 2

2013 on Grass:

Current Single Ranking: 4

Wimbledon Seed: 4th 

Wimbledon is the only major where David Ferrer has failed to reach the semi-finals so far in his career. Despite grass clearly being his least favorite surface, he still managed to win two titles at s-Hertogenbosch in 2008 and 2012. This year he lost in the 1st round to Xavier Malisse, but he was probably still recovering after a long clay court season. Overall, the Spaniard, who turned 31 in April, is experiencing his best season, having already reached 6 finals (winning 2) including his first in a Grand Slam at the Roland Garros. Lacking a little bit of power on his serve and ground-strokes it would be a big surprise if he went all the way in London but he definitely has the tenacity and determination to finally book a place in the semis. 

7 - Juan Martin Del Potro

Wimbledon Best Result: 4th Round (2011-2012)

Grass Court Career Titles: 0

2013 on Grass: QF Queen`s Club

Current Single Ranking: 8

Wimbledon Seed: 8th

Del Potro’s mediocre Wimbledon record (he has never reached the last 8) doesn’t reflect his capability of being effective on grass as he proved during the Olympic Games when he lost 3-6 7-6 (5) 19-17  after a fiery battle against Roger Federer in the semi-finals and then beat Djokovic in straight set to win the bronze medal. He probably lacks a bit of agility to be extremely successful on grass, but his huge serve and powerful ground-strokes are weapons that can be very dangerous on fast surfaces, as he proved winning the US Open in 2009. The Argentine missed the last French Open due to a viral infection and, on his return at Queen’s, didn’t play particularly well losing in the quarter finals to Lleyton Hewitt. He is probably not at his best but since he could benefit from another week of training and is in the weakest part of the draw, it would be foolish not to consider him one of the possible protagonists. 

6 – Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Wimbledon Best Result: Semi Finalist (2011-2012)

Grass Court Career Titles: 0

2013 on Grass: SF Queen`s Club

Current Single Ranking: 7

Wimbledon Seed: 6th

The 28 years old French has a good serve, a devastating forehand and has both the agility and a good hand to be effective at the net, an area where, despite the death of serve-and-volley, it’s still better to be good if you want to win at Wimbledon. In the light of this, it is quite surprising that none of his 10 career titles were won on grass. However he played quite well at the Championships in the last two seasons reaching the semifinals in both occasions and beating past champions Roger Federer (who he also upset two weeks ago in Paris, before losing a disappointing semifinal to David Ferrer) and Lleyton Hewitt. This year he has won 1 tournament, in Marseille, while last week he lost in the semifinals at Queen’s to Andy Murray, who he would theoretically meet in quarter-finals, providing he gets through a tough match in the last 16 against Marin Cilic. 

5 - Tomas Berdych

Wimbledon Best Result: Finalist (2010)

Grass Court Career Titles: 1

2013 on Grass: QF Queen`s Club

Current Single Ranking: 6

Wimbledon Seed: 7th 

Berdych is having a very consistent season with 31 wins and 12 losses so far. Only Nadal and Ferrer, of the players ranked in the top 10, have played more matches than the Czech. Therefore losing in the 1st Round to Monfils at the Roland Garros could have saved him precious energy for Wimbledon, the tournament where he reached his only Grand Slam final to this date. He was a little disappointing in his defeat to Marin Cilic at the Queen’s Club but he has already proved how effective he can be on grass winning Halle in 2007 and beating both Federer and Djokovic on his way to the aforementioned Wimbledon final in 2010, losing only to Rafael Nadal. Berdych is generally quite unpredictable, but on a good day both his serve and baseline game can cause major upsets.

4 - Rafael Nadal

Wimbledon Best Result: Winner (2008-2010)

Grass Court Career Titles: 3

2013 on Grass: didn’t play any tournament

Current Single Ranking: 5

Wimbledon Seed: 5th 

Rafa may be number 5 in the current single ranking but, taking into account only the results achieved in 2013, he leads by almost 2000 points on Novak Djokovic. The fact the he didn’t play at the Australian Open nor in Miami, gives us a clear indication of just how dominant Nadal has been since his return from the knee injury that kept him out for 7 months. Mainly playing on his favorite surface, clay, he has reached at least the final at every single event he lined up for this year, winning 7 out of 9. Last year he was upset in the 2nd round at the Championships by the Slovak Lukas Rosol, at the time ranked 100th  in the world, in one of the biggest surprises in the tournament’s 137 years history, but he reached at least the final in all the previous 5 editions he competed in. To reach a 6th final Rafa may have to beat all the top 3 seeds of draw. On grass he leads 2-1 against Djokovic, 3-0 against Murray and is 2-1 down against Federer despite winning the last encounter, the epic 2008 final. All things considered, this is one of the most unpredictable editions of the Championships in recent years and I would give the same chances to Nadal, Federer, Murray and Djokovic. However, Rafa only played one non-clay tournament in the last 12 months, having reasonably decided to rest after the French Open. This, in addition to the tough draw, could be a concern for the otherwise in form Spaniard and it’s the reason why I only rank him at 4.

3 - Andy Murray

Wimbledon Best Result: Finalist (2012)

Grass Court Career Titles: 4

2013 on Grass: W Queen’s Club

Current Single Ranking: 2

Wimbledon Seed: 2nd 

As it was for Tim Henman before him, Andy Murray has to carry the weight of an entire nation on his shoulders any time he enters Church Road’s gates. The last British player to win the Championships was Freddy Perry in 1936 and for a country so passionate for tennis and for their tournament in particular, that’s a torturing wait. Last year however the Scots broke a few spells. Having won the US Open he became the first Brit to win a major since Perry won the same tournament in 1936. He also reached the final in London (the last British finalist before him was Bunny Austin in 1939) and won the Gold medal at the Olympic Games, taking his revenge on Roger Federer on the same court where he lost the Wimbledon final only a few weeks earlier. All these achievements have surely taken some pressure off him and after missing the French Open due to a back injury he looked perfectly fit on the way to his 4th title at the Queen’s (3rd success of the season after Doha and the Miami Master Series). Of the active players, only Federer and Hewitt have won more tournaments on grass than Murray who this year seems more ready than ever to make the one last step the Kingdom is waiting for. 

2 - Novak Djokovic

Wimbledon Best Result: Winner (2011)

Grass Court Career Titles: 1

2013 on Grass: didn’t play any tournament 

Current Single Ranking: 1

Wimbledon Seed: 1st 

Nole followed the same path he took in 2011 and 2012 and, like Nadal, decided not play any warm up event before Wimbledon, instead preferring to recover after the tiring clay court season. This year he has been quite consistent winning the Australian Open, Montecarlo and Dubai but also faced some unexpected losses at the hands of respectable players like Haas, Berdych and Dimitrov. He can count only 1 career title on grass (the Wimbledon crown he won during his fantastic 2011 season) a surface that better suits his three archrivals. He has in fact a negative head to head record on grass against all of them: 1-2 against Nadal, 0-1 against Murray and 0-1 Federer. These numbers are however too little to determine a definitive trend and Djokovic proved on multiple circumstances that he can rise to the occasion. Also, as said, he would have to face only one of the other big three en route to the trophy and this totally compensate the little surface disadvantage.

1 – Roger Federer

Wimbledon Best Result: Winner (2003-2004-2005-2006-2007-2009-2012)

Grass Court Career Titles: 13

2013 on Grass: W Halle

Current Single Ranking: 3

Wimbledon Seed: 3rd 

Roger Federer shares the record of 7 Wimbledon Men’s Single titles with William Renshaw and Pete Sampras. Renshaw, however, competed at a time when the defending champion was automatically qualified for the following year’s final and therefore had to play only one match in all but two occasions to win the trophy. Federer is the defending champion and has just won his first title in the last 10 months at the Gerry Weber Open. Since 2003, when he started to fulfill his huge potential, the Swiss has won a sensational 95% of matches on grass, also winning 13 tournaments out of 19. If it’s true that the Roger, who turns 32 in August, is not as consistent day in day out as Djokovic and Nadal, on the other hand it is quite interesting to note that if we take the matches on clay out of the account, he still has an even head to head record in the last 24 months against the other big guns. He is 3-3 against Murray (1-1 on grass) and 2-2 against both Nadal and Djokovic. Just like Nadal, Federer may have to beat all of them if he wants to win his 8th title but, looking at the bright side, he could benefit from the center court roof and not having to play matches on consecutive days because of the rain. Roger still produces the best grass court tennis on the circuit so when it comes to Wimbledon, in doubt, I go with him.