(Read all of Adam J. Morris's profile of Giolito here.)
Lucas Giolito scouting report -- Lucas Giolito is a 6'6", 230 lb. righthanded pitcher at Harvard-Westlake High School in Studio City, California. Keith Law and Baseball America both have Giolito ranked #9 on their boards, and both have had him much higher in the past. Kevin Goldstein has Giolito #2 on his top 30 list.
Giolito, by all accounts, has true #1 starter potential. He has an upper 90s fastball that BA says was as high as 99 in February, and BA also writes that he has a plus-plus curveball and a plus change. ESPN's scouting report has both his fastball and his curveball as presently above-average, and projects his changeup and "feel for pitching" to also be above-average in the future. He gets raves for his work ethic. There's been talk that he could go at #1 overall in the draft.
However, Goldstein doesn't have Giolito going in the top 15 of his updated mock draft (which only goes through 15), and Mayo, Callis, and Piliere don't have him going in the first round of their mock drafts. Law has him going at #17, to the Blue Jays.
Well, the problem is that Giolito has a sprained ulnar collateral ligament and hasn't pitched since early March. The new rules put the signing deadline at July 13, and Giolito isn't going to be able to pitch before then. That has teams early in the first round leery of popping him with a top pick.